Champions League Malmö vs Copenhagen: Score recommendation

1. Recent status and injury situation

Malmö: The state is hot but the injury is plagued by

Malmö has been very hot recently, and has achieved 8 wins and 2 draws in all competitions in the past 10 games, and has won 7 consecutive victories. He performed particularly well at home, winning all four games and conceded only 1 goal. His offensive firepower was fierce and his defense was quite stable. Front player Sotriu and midfielder Stucky are in a state of great strength and are key figures on the team's offensive end. However, the team is facing serious injury problems. The main team of forward Eric Botheim, veteran goalkeeper John Darling, midfielder Stefano Vichia, as well as main guards Martin Olsen, Pentus Jenson and midfield core Anders Christianson, etc., are absent due to injuries, which brings considerable challenges to the team's lineup depth and tactical arrangement.

Copenhagen: The state is stable and the lineup is neat. Copenhagen also maintains an excellent competitive state, with 8 wins and 2 draws in the last 10 games, 3 wins and 1 draw away. This season, he performed extremely well away from home, has not conceded a single goal so far, and has 5 games to win the opponent, making his defense very resilient. On the offensive end, players such as Ali and Rosengren are in a stable state and can conquer the team. In contrast, Copenhagen has a mild injury situation, with only defender Junnosuke Suzuki and midfielder Oliver Hejjer absent. The main lineup is basically complete and the overall combat power cannot be underestimated.

2. Comparison of tactical styles

Malmö: Flexible offense, hidden dangers in defense

Malmö adopts a liquidity 4-3-3 system. During the offense, the frontcourt trio has strong penetrating pass ability, completing an average of 18.3 penetrating passes every 90 minutes, ranking first in the Swedish super. The success rate of fulcrum player Terrin has reached 63% with his back-to-back ball, which can create sufficient space for the wing and has rich offensive methods. However, the team has certain hidden dangers in defense. The high-position defense line makes the opponent's space per game 3.7 times per game. The positioning speed is slow when the attack turns from defense, and the average takes 4.2 seconds, which easily leaves the opponent with a chance to counterattack.

Copenhagen: Defensive counterattack, strong midfield control, Copenhagen prefers 5-3-2 defensive counterattack tactics, relying on the connection between Crathon (2.4 key passes per game) and El Yunusi (sprint speed 8.92m/s), the counterattack conversion rate is as high as 22%, which is quite efficient. The team's five-back system has good defensive flexibility. This season, the success rate of clearing from crosses on the wing is 87%, the midfield control is strong, and it is good at finding offensive opportunities through patient transmission. However, the defense rate is only 71% when facing small-scale cooperation, and there are problems with the ball when facing high-pressure pressing, and they are per game 14.7 steals per game.

3. Review of historical confrontations

Review of the last 5 matches between the two teams, Copenhagen has the upper hand in 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, and has a certain psychological advantage. But in the 2019/20 Europa League group stage, Malmo defeated Copenhagen 1-0 at home, which also made Malmo players believe that they are not without a chance against strong opponents.

4. Key factors for winning and losing the game

1. Impact of Malmö's home turf: The artificial turf at Malmö's home turf may have an impact on the performance of Copenhagen's technical stream players. Copenhagen players who are used to natural turf need a certain amount of time to adapt to the venue conditions, which may affect their technical actions and tactical execution in the game.

2. Defensive loopholes and offensive opportunities: Malmö right-back Rossler, as a young player, has relatively insufficient defensive experience. Copenhagen winger Larson has been in excellent form recently (3 goals and 2 assists). Whether Rossler's defensive gap can be used to create threats will be a major highlight of the game. Malmo needs to take advantage of Copenhagen's problem of shooting when facing high-pressure pressing, strengthen pressing and gain more offensive opportunities.

3. Settings Tactics: Settings offense and defense are likely to become the key to the victory or defeat of this game. Malmö's 30% of his goals came from set pieces, with a corner kick score of 19%; Copenhagen's high-altitude top-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square- The arrangement and execution of set pieces tactics between the two sides are likely to determine the direction of the game.

5. Game prediction

From the perspective of the medium and low water of the 0/0.5 goals from the initial exit of the institution, combined with the recent zero-locking rate of the two teams (Copenhagen 62.5% vs Malmö 50%) and the state of key players, the game is likely to show a pattern of "ball control and suppression vs. rapid counterattack". Considering Malmö's home advantage and Copenhagen's stable away performance, the gap in strength between the two sides is small. Professional data model shows that the probability of a draw in this game is 42.3%, slightly higher than expectations of main wins (38.1%) and away wins (19.6%). It is expected that the two sides will shake hands and make peace within 90 minutes, and the total number of goals may be controlled within 2 goals, and the second round of the game may become the key to advancement. Who can get the lead in this Nordic showdown, let's wait and see.