[Five major leagues of the Clerk] [Dutch Second Division] Grav vs. Emen [World Preliminary] Italy vs. Estonia [World Preliminary] Faroe Islands vs. Croatia

001 [Dutch Second] Grav VS Emen

match background and recent status

In the early morning of September 6th, Gravsharp will face Emen at home. The home team has been in a state of ups and downs recently but has strong home games, with a winning rate of 50% in the last 6 home games, averaging 2.2 goals per game, and outstanding offensive firepower. Emirates has performed better recently, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 games, and his morale is strong in the last round of 3-1 victory over Dun Bosh. However, Grafsharp won 3 wins and 1 draw in four leagues in the new season, ranking third with 9 points, and conceded only 1 goal on the defensive end, which is far more stable than his opponent.

tactical style and key player

Grav Sharp focuses on 4-3-3 formations, and is good at crossing from the wing and penetration from the middle. The midfield core Van der Fen averages 2.3 key passes per game, and forward Van der Fen has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist, becoming the core of the offensive. Emen relied on 5-4-1 defensive counterattack, and forward Cork had a significant speed advantage (1.8 breakthroughs per game), but only 2 available players were left in the midfield due to injury, and his organizational ability was limited. Home winger Jansen has been in full form recently in training, and the linkage with Van der Fen may become the key to breaking the situation.

Historical confrontations and home advantage

Grafsharp has won 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 6 matches. He won 4-0 at home in the first leg of this season, with a significant psychological advantage. Its home game against the dropped team maintained a record of 5 wins and 1 draw, and its home winning rate exceeded 60% last season. In contrast, Estonia has been weak away, with only one away win in the last three NBA games, and has never scored a goal when facing a strong team at home.

In this game, Graf, who is optimistic about the momentum, successfully played

Age: 20.31

007 [World-World qualifiers] Italy vs Estonia

1. Strength comparison: The huge gap sets the tone

As the winner of the four World Cups, Italy ranks 11th in the world; while Estonia ranks 126th in the world, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in the last 10 games, and has suffered 15 consecutive losses away. In the historical confrontation, Italy won all seven games, with a net victory of 2.6 goals per game, and swept the opponent 4-0 in the 2020 friendly match. Italy has a home advantage in this game - 14 wins and 1 draw in the last 15 World Cup qualifiers, averaging 3.6 goals per game; Estonia lost more than 3 goals in 10 away games in the World Cup qualifiers, and the lateral movement speed of the defense line decreased by 15% compared with three years ago, and the proportion of conceded goals in set pieces reached 40%. After taking office, Gattuso launched a 433 formation. The forward combination Orsolini, Scarmaca and Zachani have both speed and height. The trio of midfielder Tonali Barrera Vlatesi can effectively suppress the opponent's counterattack. In contrast, Estonia, double central defender Tam and Balannov were suspended, and the substitute central defender combination lacked experience, and goalkeeper Hayn played for the team that conceded the most goals in La Liga.

2. Tactical analysis: Italy's three-dimensional offense and Estonia's dilemma

Italian tactical system shows three advantages:

Passing and controlling suppression: Midfielder Jorginho averaged 3.5 key long passes per game accurately hit the Estonian defense line, full-back Di Marco and Di Lorenzo stepped forward to form width suppression, combined with Chiesa's 68% breakthrough at home Success rate;

Settings kick: Dimarco's corner kick landing accuracy reaches 72%. For Estonia's settling ball defense loopholes (40% of conceding goals), Mancini and Bastoni's header advantage will be the key to breaking the game;

Substitute depth: Belotti's substitute contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, and Castrovilli's long-range shot targeted the opponent's weak defense at the top of the arc in the penalty area (6.2 shots were shot in the last 3 games).

Estonia was forced to adopt a contraction defensive strategy, but it has fatal flaws:

Response inefficiency: Only 8 goals were scored in the last 10 games, the main striker Vasiliev has limited breakthrough ability, and the midfield possession rate is less than 40%;

Sports Crisis: In a intensive league schedule, the running distance in the second half decreased by 18%, making it difficult to deal with Italy's intensity impact after 70 minutes;

Psychological disadvantage: net loss of 18 goals in historical confrontations, and away fans cheered, resulting in a 20% increase in passing error rate.

Italy has a clear intention to fight in this game, and is optimistic about the refreshing

Age: 30.40

008 [World-World Preliminary] Faroe Islands VS Croatia

As a weak team in European football, the Faroe Islands ranks 124th in the world, and there is a significant gap between them and Croatia. In the last 10 games, the Faroe Islands have only achieved 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, scoring 8 goals on the offensive end, conceded 11 goals on the defensive end, conceding more than 1 goal per game, and both offensive and defensive performances are at the downstream level of the European region. In the World Cup qualifiers, the Faroe Islands have only 1 draw and 4 losses in the last five games. They rely too much on forward Edmundson on the offensive end, lack of support from the midfield, and have only 3.1 key passes per game, and have only scored 1 goal in the last three games, with extremely low offensive efficiency. However, the team often shows stronger fighting spirit when fighting at home. Previously, they only lost 1-2 against the Czech Republic, showing a certain defensive resilience. The Faroe Islands coach is expected to play a 5-4-1 deep defensive formation, with all players retreating to the half court, relying on long passes and set-piece sneak attacks to find opportunities, with set-piece scores accounting for 32%, and central defender Hansen's success rate of top-square-square-back is 75%, becoming an important tactical fulcrum for the team. However, the team lost all the last 10 home games against the top 50 teams in FIFA, conceded as much as 3.2 goals per game, and had no clean sheets in the last 10 home games, which was quite a risk to the defense line.

In addition, the Faroe Islands' midfield control is weak, and the average ball control rate is less than 30% when facing a strong pass and control team. They are in a passive defensive state throughout the whole process. The physical fitness distribution also depends on the home rhythm. Three goals conceded in the last 5 home courts occurred after 75 minutes. In a strong wind environment, physical energy consumption is faster and defensive focus is prone to decline. The team's lineup is extremely poor, and the substitute strength gap is significant after the main player is injured, making it difficult to support 90 minutes of high-intensity defense. Overall, although the Faroe Islands have a certain degree of defensive resilience, their overall strength and tactical diversity are insufficient, making it difficult to pose a substantial threat to Croatia.. As the third place in the last World Cup, Croatia ranked high in the world and was the biggest favorite to qualify in Group L. Its overall strength is far beyond the Faroe Islands. In the last 10 games, Croatia has achieved excellent record of 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, showing the foundation of a strong team in the World Cup on both offense and defense. In the first two rounds of the World Cup, Croatia scored 12 goals and conceded only 1 goal. In June, it even swept Gibraltar 7-0, with extremely fierce offensive firepower. The team has world-class stars such as Modric and Perisic. The tactical style is known for its delicate technology and efficient teamwork. It has excellent midfield control and can sort out the offense through precise passes and tacit cooperation. Although there are occasional fluctuations on the defensive end, the performance of losing 0.8 goals per game is still competitive. The main central defender Lovren has a success rate of 79% at high altitude interception, and the defense line is stable. In this away game,

Croatia is likely to adopt a 4-3-3 system to suppress the opponent through midfield ball control and launch a intensive offensive against the weak points of the Faroe Islands midfield. As the soul of the team, Modric has superb skills, a broad vision of passing and excellent running ability. He forms a perfect midfield partner with Kovacic and can effectively control the rhythm of the game. On the forward line, Petkovic has a keen sense of smell in front of the goal and excellent finishing ability, which is an important guarantee for the team's offensive end. Croatia's lineup depth and tactical diversity are also far beyond the Faroe Islands. Even if it is rotated, substitutes still have top-notch standards. However, the artificial turf at the home court of the Faroe Islands, the possible bad weather, and the game with Montenegro in three days may cause Croatia to rotate in a certain way, which may have a certain impact on the team's performance. But overall, Croatia has an absolute advantage in strength, experience and tactical execution, and the probability of winning is extremely high. Based on the recent performance and tactical characteristics of both sides, the score prediction of this game will revolve around factors such as the Faroe Islands' defensive resilience, Croatia's offensive firepower, and the venue environment. Although the Faroe Islands are fighting at home and have a tight defense system, facing Croatia's midfield suppression and efficient counterattack, its defense line may be difficult to withstand the 90-minute high-intensity impact. It is expected that the Faroe Islands may score a goal through set pieces or counterattacks, but Croatia is expected to score 3-4 goals with Modric's organizational dispatch and Perisic's wing breakthrough

In this game, the egg is optimistic that Croatia will successfully play

Age: 13.14