Is it cold on Thursday? Is Barcelona really stable?

Event analysis: Espanyol vs Barcelona (36th round of La Liga)

Summary of fundamentals

1. Points and rankings:

- Espanyol (Home team): ranks 16th with 39 points in 35 rounds, and there is basically no worries about relegation, but the record still needs to be consolidated at home.

- Barcelona (visit team): ranked first in the list with 82 points in 35 rounds, and has secured the La Liga championship ahead of schedule. The intention to fight may be weakened due to rotation.

2. Recent status:

- Espanyol: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 6 rounds, 1 win, 3 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 games at home, and has a stable defense (only conceded 1 goal at home), but its offensive efficiency is low (only 2 goals in the home half).

- Barcelona: 5 wins and 1 draw in the last 6 rounds, 5 consecutive away games, and is in a hot state; but the away half performance is mediocre (leading 0 in the last 6 games, drawing 4 times, and falling 2 times).

3. Historical confrontation:

- In the last 6 confrontations, Espanyol has been at a disadvantage in 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, but in the last 3 confrontations at home, 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss, showing home competition ability.

4. Half-time trend:

- The probability of a draw in the first half is 54%, Espanyol has a stable defense at home (only 1 goal conceded), and Barcelona lacks dominance in the away half (0 leads).

Analysis of key factors

- Espanyol Opportunities:

1. Home Resilience: Only 1 loss in the last 5 home games, and the unbeaten rate against Barcelona in the historical confrontations is relatively high (1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss).

2. Barcelona has doubts about fighting spirit: the championship has been decided, the main players may be rotated, and the intensity of the game has decreased.

3. Half-court defense: Conceding very few goals in the home halftime may limit Barcelona's forward line (Lewandow, Dembele, etc.).

- Barcelona Risk:

1. Rotation Impact: The substitute player's status is unknown, and the offensive fluency may be discounted.

2. Slow warm-up in the away half: leading 0 in the last 6 away games, making it difficult to quickly break the deadlock.

Recommended results and score suggestions

- Winning and losing tendency: Barcelona's small victory

- Barcelona's strength is crushed but their fighting spirit is limited. Espanyol's home defense is stable, and the game may be stalemate.

- Score suggestions: Espanyol 1-2 Barcelona

- First half: 0-0 draw (Barcelona has the advantage in possession but lacks a fatal blow, Espanyol focuses on defense).

- Second half: Barcelona was broken by substitute player Ferran Torres (0-1), and Espanyol equalized by Joseru through a quick counterattack (1-1); Lewandowski came on the bench before the final game and headed the ball to the bench (1-2).

Risk warning

1. If all the main players of Barcelona play, they may win a big victory (such as 1-3 or 0-2).

2. If Espanyol seizes the opportunity to set the ball, they may tie the ball in a flash (1-1 or 2-2).