Losing in the first round, the Indonesian team’s probability of qualifying for the World Cup dropped to 1%

After losing to the Saudi team in the world preliminaries, the data website World Football Elo Ratings updated the Indonesian team's odds of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.

In the early morning of October 9, in the first round of Group B of the fourth stage of the World Cup preliminaries, the Indonesian team lost 2-3 to the host Saudi team. A total of 6 teams entered the fourth stage of the World Cup preliminaries and were divided into 2 groups of 3 teams each. The top team in the group can directly advance to the World Cup. The second-placed teams of the two groups will enter the fifth stage, and the final winner will compete in a play-off with teams from other continents to compete for the last spot. Before the start of the fourth stage, the Indonesian team's probability of advancement was considered to be the lowest in the group. They face many disadvantages: the game is in Saudi Arabia and the schedule is the most unfavorable.

According to the predictions of World Football Elo Ratings, before facing the Saudi team, the Indonesian team ranked first in the group and had only a 5% chance of directly qualifying for the World Cup. After this defeat, the Indonesian team's chance of advancement has dropped to 1%. Judging from the current situation, such data is reasonable. If they still want to win the first place in the group, the Indonesian team must win the game against Iraq and score as many goals as possible (at least 2-1, 3-2...), and also hope that the Iraqi team can defeat the Saudi team. In this case, all three teams have 3 points, and we need to compare the goal difference and number of goals scored, as well as the relationship between victory and defeat.

According to predictions from World Football Elo Ratings, the probability of the Indonesian team beating the Iraqi team is only 22%, while the probability of the Iraqi team beating the Saudi team is 32%. The match between the Indonesian team and the Iraqi team will be held on the evening of October 12th local time, while the Saudi team will have three days of rest.