May 11th, some events analysis, forecast reference.

Newcastle United:

1: League performance and recent state Newcastle United performed strongly this season, ranking fourth in the league with 19 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, with 63 points, only 1 point advantage from the Champions League zone. The team's condition has improved steadily recently, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 6 league games, including 5 consecutive home wins and 2.8 goals per game. However, the 1-1 draw with Brighton in the last round of the away game exposed the hidden dangers of the defense - the combination of central defender Schell and Botmann lost positions many times in the high-altitude ball confrontation, causing the opponent to threaten the goal many times. On the offensive end, Swedish striker Isaac is in a hot state. He has scored 23 goals in the league this season, accounting for 35% of the team's total goals, and has scored goals against Chelsea in the last three times.

2: Tactical characteristics and lineup shortcomings Eddie Howe's tactical system is centered on the 4-3-3 formation, emphasizing breakthroughs on the wing and rapid counterattacks. Right back Trippier's accurate cross (4.2 crosses per game) and Gordon's incisive breakthrough on the left (2.3 out of the game) are the main offensive methods. In the midfield, Tonali and Guimarães have both interception and ball output, but Jolinton missed due to a knee injury (anticipated return on May 23), which may weaken the midfield hardness. On the defensive line, Schell and Botman's header success rate was 68% and 65% respectively, but the injuries of Russells and Taggart caused insufficient depth on the bench.

3: Home advantage and key data: St. James Park Stadium is Newcastle United's "devil's home court". It has won 5 home games in the last 6 leagues, with a winning rate of up to 83%, averaging 2.8 goals and conceded only 0.7 goals. The team has outstanding offensive efficiency in positioning balls. This season, 12 goals were scored through corner kicks and free kicks, of which Scher contributed 5 headers. But it should be noted that Chelsea's away set-piece conceding rate is only 15% this season, and central defender Badiahiller's success rate of top-strike reached 72%, which may limit Newcastle's high-altitude advantage.

Chelsea:

1. The league performance and recent state Chelsea ranked fifth with 18 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses, with 63 points, only 1 point away from the Champions League. The team's form has recovered recently, with 4 wins and 2 draws in the last 6 league games, including a key battle to defeat Liverpool 3-1. On the offensive end, the combination of Palmer and Jackson contributed 42% of the team's goals (Palmer scored 15 goals and 10 assists, Jackson scored 14 goals), but Nkunku was absent due to injury (an expected return on May 25), which may affect the diversity of the offensive. On the defensive end, Chelsea averaged 1.17 goals per game. With the three-century defender system (Badiahile, Charoba, and Kukurelia) suppressed the opponent's shots in the penalty area to averaging 4.5 times per game with the support of Kesedo's barrier.

2. Tactical characteristics and lineup adjustment Maresca's tactical system is based on the 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing midfield control and wing penetration. The double midfielder composed of Kesedo (3.1 steals per game) and Enzo (88% pass success rate per game) is the offensive and defensive conversion hub, while Palmer's breakthrough and straight pass at the Shadow Front position (3.8 key passes per game) is the offensive core. On the wing side, Maduaike and Muderick's speed advantage may target Newcastle full-back Trippier and Livramento's defensive loopholes. However, Ferfana's long-term injury (an expected return in July) has led to insufficient defense experience, and the tacit understanding of the central defender combination to assist in defense remains to be tested.

3. Away performance and key data Chelsea's away winning rate this season is 41%, averaging 1.65 goals but conceded 1.35 goals, and both offense and defense are weaker than home. The team's counterattack efficiency has declined significantly, from 27% at the beginning of the season to 19%, but Palmer's rotation in Europa League (appearing on the bench in the last three games) may retain his physical fitness. It is worth noting that Chelsea has played 5 big scores (≥3 goals) in the last 7 matches against Newcastle United, and has a psychological advantage in the last 3 away games.

Comprehensive analysis:

The two teams have faced each other in the last 10 matches Newcastle United have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, of which 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss at home have the advantage. In the first leg of this season, Chelsea reversed Newcastle 2-1 at home, but Newcastle took 2-0 at home in the League Cup. It is worth noting that in 5 of the last seven Premier League matches, both sides scored more than 2.5 goals, and there were four results of "both teams scoring goals". Newcastle United's home momentum and Isaac's personal ability are the key to winning, while Chelsea's midfield control and Palmer's creativity may become breakthrough points. If Newcastle can stabilize its defense and play its positioning advantage, it is expected to score all three points; if Chelsea can limit Newcastle's cross from the side and use counterattacks, it may take away key points. This showdown is not only a tactical battle, but also a life-and-death battle for Champions League qualifications. It is expected to end with a fierce confrontation and high scores.

001 Kashima Antlers VS Kawasaki Forward (+1) Recommended: Loss score prediction: 01, 02, 12 Goals: 2/3 Goals

002 Hiroi Imaji FC VS Chiba Ichihara (-1) Recommended: Double-distance score prediction: 10, 11, 21 Goals: 2/3 Goals

003 Korean Gwangju FC VS Jeonbuk Hyundai (+1) Recommended: Let the win score prediction: 11, 21, 22 Goals: 3/4 Goals

004 Premier League Newcastle VS Chelsea (-1) Recommended: Win, draw score prediction: 20, 21, 22 Goals: 2/3/4 Goals