72-hour countdown! Durant chooses one of the ultimate threes, can Xu Jingyu predict?

Durant's next stop has entered the final sprint stage. Based on the information and trading trends of multiple parties, the most likely next players are currently concentrated in the Rockets, Timberwolves and Spurs, and the Thunder and Heat as potential dark horses also have theoretical possibilities. The following is an analysis from the core competitive team, key influencing factors and time nodes:

1. Houston Rockets (leader)

Advantages:

Holding the Suns in 2025, 2027, and 2029 unprotected first round picks can meet the Suns' reconstruction needs.

Durant has a close relationship with coach Uduka, and the Rockets' second-place team in the West is in line with his goal of winning the championship.

The young lineup (Shin Kyung, Jaylen Green) complements Durant and has high tactical adaptability.

Obstacles:

The Suns asked the Rockets to send Jaylen Green or Jabbarry Smith Jr., and the Rockets management was hesitant to break up the young core.

Durant's salary of 54.7 million may squeeze the space for future contract renewal, and the risk of a big bet is significant.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves (dark horse speeds up)

Advantages:

Edwards and Durant's personal relationship (Edwards publicly calls him an idol) has become a secret bargaining chip.

Gobert (35 million) + Divinchenzo (12 million) salary is perfectly matched and provides instant combat power.

The new Timberwolves general manager is known for "dare to bet and lose" and has operated Gobert's 10 for 1 transaction.

Obstacles: The time window for the championship competition between

Durant (37 years old) and Edwards (22 years old) is misaligned, and the long-term adaptability is questionable.

The Suns asked for McDaniels and instead demanded potential star Dillingham, the negotiations were stalemate.

III. San Antonio Spurs (ideal but big differences)

Advantages:

Wenbanyama + Fox's young core framework attracts Durant as the mentor role.

The Spurs have 13 first-round picks, with the richest chip base in the league.

Texas' warm climate and playing Texas' complex is in line with Durant's preferences.

Obstacles:

Suns asked for the second pick (target Dylan Harper), and the Spurs are only willing to provide the 14th pick.

The Spurs have doubts about Durant's adaptability to the young core and are unwilling to overdraw their future.

4. Key influencing factors in transactions

Hard conditions for renewal of contracts:

Durant's team requires the new owner to promise to provide a maximum salary of 112 million yuan immediately after the transaction (July 7), otherwise it will be considered a "mercenary relationship". Only the Thunder (Alexander's cheap contract) and the Spurs (written rookie bonus) can digest this contract without pressure.

Suns' game strategy:

Time pressure: "Trade within 48 hours" creates buyer panic, forcing the Rockets/Timberwolves to raise their quotes.

chip upgrade: Ask for Shin Kyung + Green from the Rockets, ask for the second pick from the Spurs, and keep in touch with the Heat/Knicks as an alternative.

Weight of player wishes:

Durant chose Texas teams (Rockets, Spurs), but the Suns prioritized trading returns. If the Timberwolves significantly raise their offer (such as adding 2 first rounds), the Suns may ignore their wishes8.

time nodes and odds trends

countdown 72 hours: The transaction is very likely to be finalized before the June 22 draft, and it is even officially announced today (June 17) to tomorrow.

Latest odds change:

Spurs -125 (leading but shrinking advantage)

Timberwolves +400 (overtaking the Rockets)

Rockets +800 (sliding due to chip divergence).

Comprehensive prediction: The Timberwolves' probability rises

If the Rockets are willing to send Jaylen Green or the Spurs to compromise and hand over the second pick, the two are still the best choices; but the current Timberwolves' aggressive quotation (Gober + Dillingham + first round) is more likely to meet the Suns' immediate combat power needs.