Four highlights of the finals G4: Both sides face the test of physical strength, substitute performance determines the outcome

In a seven-game four-win playoff series, no game is more decisive than Game 4.

Of course, if you want to win the series, you need to win four games first, and the order does not matter, as is the case in the 2025 NBA Finals. But as long as the series has not yet reached the brink of elimination, such as not 3-0, the outcome of the fourth game will often have a profound impact on the subsequent trend.

Currently, the Indiana Pacers lead the Oklahoma City Thunder 2-1 in the finals, and they have already gained a clear advantage. Historical data shows that in the finals, the side that took 2-1 lead has a close to 80% chance of winning the championship (the historical record is 50 wins and 13 losses). If the score can be expanded to 3-1, this probability will soar to 97% (37 wins and 1 losses).

But if the team behind can equalize the series in G4, such as the Thunder winning the game tomorrow, the situation will change instantly. In this way, Game 5 will often become a watershed in the series - the winner will have a chance of winning the championship as high as 75% (23 wins and 8 losses).

Simply put, if the Thunder wins G4, they will not only regain their home advantage, but also turn the finals into a three-game two-win system, forcing the Pacers to win another away game. If the Pacers took advantage of the victory at home and won another game after G3's 116-107 victory, then the Thunder will face an almost desperate challenge - in NBA history, only the Cavaliers in 2016 had successfully turned the tables in the finals 1-3, with only one of 38 times.

Walkers are no strangers to this. They led 2-1 in the first three rounds of the playoffs this year, and eventually defeated the Bucks 4-1, eliminated the Cavaliers 4-1, and defeated the Knicks 4-2 respectively. The Thunder also have experience - they were behind the Nuggets 1-2 in the Western Conference semi-finals, and eventually won three consecutive games to complete the reversal and advanced to the finals.

G4's biggest difficulty may not be technical and tactics, but mentality.

"There is no need to be too excited or excited," Pacers guard Teresa Halliburton said. "We still have a lot of work to do."

The following are the four highlights before tomorrow's G4, which may determine the direction and weight of the night:

1. The Thunder need to perform better at critical moments

Although the Oklahoma City Thunder's record this season, not only achieved 60 wins, but also set an NBA record with a net win of 12.9 points per game, they have relatively insufficient experience in a stalemate - this may also become a hidden danger in their playoffs.

In the regular season, the Thunder played only 24 games in the "critical moment" game with a score difference of less than 5 points in the last 5 minutes of the game, with a record of 16 wins and 8 losses. Although this looks good, it is the least number of games in the 30 teams in the league. In the playoffs, the Thunder's record was 5 wins and 4 losses in such a stalemate, while in non-critical games, 8 wins and 2 losses - it can be seen that once the game is in a treacherous battle, their winning rate is greatly reduced.

, and the walker's performance is exactly the opposite. During the regular season, their record was 24 wins and 14 losses at critical moments, and after entering the playoffs, they rose to 9 wins and 1 losses. The melee reversal at the last moment of the first game and the calm control of the lead in Game 3 are all true portrayals of their ability to deal with critical moments. They strengthened their defense in G3, but at the same time they did not deviate from their attack style, were not blindly conservative, and did not make mistakes easily.

"We have experienced a lot of critical moments throughout the season," said Pacers' substitute inside Obi Topin. "We are very adaptable to this situation and are confident in the last moments of the game. We believe in daily training results, and believe that they will make the right decisions by handing the ball to the defenders."

Of course, the Thunder are not without hope. Although the only experience is limited, being able to experience critical moments often can really help the team grow. Just like many things, familiarity often leads to success.

2. The battle between bench players

As of now, a significant rule in this round of finals is: which team has better bench players, which team wins the game.

Pacers substitute beat the Thunder substitute 39-28 in G1, and widened the gap to 49-18 in Game 3. The Thunder won the G2, which was the game where their substitute dominated 48-34. In fact, from a data perspective, the series trend is almost dominated by substitutes: the Thunder's overall starting score was 246 to 222, but the Pacers' total substitute score was 112 to 94, which is the key to their ability to lead 2-1.

The Pacers' 31-point net score in the bench in G3 came from rotation changes - Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith suffered fouls, and Miles Turner was also in poor condition due to a cold or flu. But these are not enough to explain everything, especially the all-around performance of substitute wing Benedit Mathulin scoring 27 points in 22 minutes, and substitute point guard TJ McConnell only played 15 minutes but handed over 10 points, 5 assists and 5 steals, which are all the core of the Pacers' bench tearing the Thunder's defense.

"Role players perform better at home" is a cliché, but this playoff law has been perfectly confirmed in G3.

However, some of the bench disadvantages on the Thunder are also due to the rotation choice of coach Mark Dignot. For example, Aaron Wiggins scored 24 points in Game 2 and played for more than 20 minutes, but in Game 3, he only played for less than 10 minutes and lost no results. Shooter Isaiah Joe hit the first two three-pointers, but never waited for the third time to make a phone call. He was abandoned after only 4 minutes and 13 seconds of playing in the game..

The Thunder coaching staff significantly increased the offensive usage rate against top stars Shea Gilgers-Alexander and Jaylen Williams in G3. Although this seems reasonable, it just falls into the Pacers' defensive preparations - the latter has planned to focus the defense on these two main attackers, thus reducing the threat from other "variable" players.

In response to this, Dai Gnott admitted after the game: "The entire team of the opponent, both players and coaches, has suppressed us completely. Of course, we need to let go of this loss and continue to look forward, but we must also face it and learn from the lessons."

3. Round control is greater than three-point shooting

For some old-school fans, this round of finals may be a clear stream - three-pointers are not the decisive factor in the direction of victory and loss. This is particularly rare in today's era of "those who shoot more three-pointers often win". The Pacers' two wins came from completely different three-point performances: they made the best 39 of 18 shots in the first game, and the third game was the least efficient one, with only 9 of 27 shots. In the Thunder, the three-point output dropped significantly compared to the regular season, down from 14.5 per game to 11.7, but the shooting percentage increased.

But in the entire series, whether it is a coach or a player, the core emphasis is not on the outside shooting, but on the round control - playing four or five successful scoring rounds in a row, or defending the opponent's several offensive rounds in a row can often determine the trend of a quarter or even a game. Compared to pursuing more long shots, the game focuses more on how to create high-quality mobile phone opportunities - such as protecting rebounds, preventing mistakes, improving the quality of shooting selection, etc.

This round of finals is like a tactical return, highlighting the biggest difference between the series and the routine: there is no random projection battle here, but a high-level showdown after in-depth preparation and repeated gameplay. Such a competition rhythm and content are undoubtedly a long-lost satisfaction for viewers who truly love the essence of the competition.

4. Is the exhausted moment or the adrenaline soaring?

From the season opening game last October, the Thunder and Pacers have played 101 games - including the regular season and the playoffs. Although the frequency of playoff games is not as dense as the regular season, the intensity, pressure and consequences carried by each game are far beyond the previous 82 games, and even the intensity of the mid-season championship cannot be compared.

If fatigue will appear in this round of the series, then Game 4 will be the most likely node to be exposed - this is the only game in the finals that appeared only 48 hours after Game 3, and there are 72 hours of rest between the rest. Both teams have to pay attention to whether their fuel tanks are enough.

On the Thunder, Shay Gilgers-Alexander and Jaylen Williams took on most of the offensive tasks. They rushed around and rushed on the court, not only making vertical breakthroughs, but also sideways dislocations, and the whole game was extremely costly. Although the Pacers' lineup is thicker and can consume opponents with expanded rotation, their game style itself is very physically exhausting - high-pressure pressing + fast offensive and defensive conversion, which is completely different from the slow-paced half-court style adopted by many teams in the playoffs, and has very high requirements for players' physical fitness.

"You have to tell yourself psychologically - don't be tired," said Pacers backup guard TJ McConnell. "This is the first thing I'll say when I'm willing to teach others how to play with all my might."

That being said, the light of the season's end is already right in front of me, and the shining of the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy is almost touching. Maybe the road ahead will not be easier, but even if your legs are heavy, your heart is still hot.

"At most, you can play four more games," Alexander said. "This is your goal for the whole season and your reason for your hard training all summer. For me, this is the time to grit your teeth and find a way to win."