Hardcore data | What changes will the Bucks make in the new season of three-pointers after losing Lillard?

TA/Eric Nehm

The Milwaukee Bucks will take a very different look when they step on the court next season. With Damian Lillard now returning to the Portland Trail Blazers and joining former opponent center Miles Turner, the Bucks' lineup composition has changed dramatically in just one offseason, which will force them to play a completely different style of basketball in the 2025-26 season.

In an interview with TA, Bucks general manager Jon Horst revealed that one of the style changes he hopes the team will make next season is related to three-pointers.

Horst said in Las Vegas in July: "Last year, we were the most efficient three-point shooting team in the NBA, but at best, it was mid-level in terms of shooting frequency. I think we were around 15, 16, and 17. If we could raise this ranking to the top ten while maintaining the shooting percentage of the top two and top three in the league, it would have a huge impact on our offensive efficiency throughout the season. Our style of play would make this possible, and the talent we have would make this possible."

As Giannis Antetokounmpo assumed a larger organizational role, surround him with as many three-point shooters as possible, and let these shooters make a large number of three-pointers, it makes sense logically.

But it is not easy to get into the top 10 of three-point shooting frequencies, especially considering that the Bucks will lose one of the most productive three-point shooters in league history (he ranks fourth in all-time three-point shooting).

To do this, the Bucks need to make adjustments in their philosophy and style to catch up with top teams that have continuously increased their three-point percentage over the past decade. How should the

Bucks achieve the goals set by Horst?

Last's three-point offense last season

Horst's overall evaluation of the Bucks' three-point offense last season was accurate. The Bucks made the league's highest three-point shooting percentage in the regular season in 2024-25: 38.7%. But they averaged only 36.6 three-pointers per game, ranking 18th in the league.

The Bucks' game pace is slow, so instead of seeing the total number of hands, it is better to refer to their share of three-pointers in all hands. Even by this indicator, the Bucks' three-point shooting frequency is only 14th, with 39.1% of the shots coming from outside the three-point line. The Bucks averaged 36.6 three-point shots per game, their lowest since Jason Kidd's last season. At that time, they averaged only 24.7 three-pointers per game, ranking 25th in the league.

In the five seasons coached by former coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have never ranked eighth in their three-point shooting average. After firing Adrian Griffin, the Bucks ranked second in the league in 36 regular season games coached by Doug Rivers. In contrast, the frequency of three-point shooting last season has dropped significantly.

Although the overall team data is important, it is also necessary to examine the personal three-point data of each player in the lineup. Last season, eight players averaged more than three-pointers per game, but their lead in shooting Lillard is no longer in the team. Brooke Lopez also left the team, and he is the fourth-ranked player in the team's three-point shooting. Lillard ranked 11th in the league in three-point shooting per game last season, while Trent Jr., the second-highest three-point shooting player in the Bucks averaged 5.9 times per game, tied for 59th with 10 other players.

At the end of the season, due to Lillard's absence due to deep vein thrombosis, the Bucks further tended to have Antetokounmpo serve as the "point guard" and arranged a three-pointer pitcher around him. Horst and the Bucks have expressed their view that they plan to continue to use this tactical plan in the 2025-26 season, but it is worth noting that without Lillard, the Bucks averaged less three-point shots per game in the final stage of the regular season.

Lillard's last regular season game with the Bucks on March 18, when the Bucks lost to the Golden State Warriors 93-104, with a record dropping to 38 wins and 30 losses. In the first 68 games of the season, the Bucks averaged 37 three-pointers per game, with a shooting percentage of 38.3%. In the last 14 games, the Bucks averaged only 35 three-point shots per game, but their three-point shooting percentage was as high as 40.6%. Therefore, despite averaging two fewer three-pointers per game, they averaged more three-pointers (14.2) in the final stage than before (14.1).

How should the Bucks shoot more three points?

Although adding three-point shots seems as simple as "shot a few more times", the entire league has been increasing its three-point shots year after year in the past decade. Opponent defense also understands the important value of three-pointers to the offense, so this may not be an easy goal for the Bucks to achieve in the new season.

Let's start with what the Bucks lost in Lillard. Replacing him with a point guard group composed of Kevin Porter Jr., Cole Anthony and Ryan Rollins will be a huge change in three-point shooting.

Last season, the top five teams in the number of three-point shots were: Celtics (48.2 times), Warriors (42 times), Bulls (42 times), Cavaliers (41.5 times) and Timberwolves (39.9 times). Among them, the Celtics (16.8 times), Timberwolves (14.7 times) and Cavaliers (13.8 times) are the three teams with the most three-point shots per game, while the Warriors (11.8 times) ranked seventh in the number of emergency stops and three-point shots per game.

Although you don't have to rely on a large number of dribbling and three-pointers to be among the top three-pointers to be included in the top three-pointers, this ability can indeed help improve the overall three-pointer shot.

Not surprisingly, the above teams have players who averaged high-frequency emergency stops and three-pointers per game.. Anthony Edwards led all players with 7.6 emergency stops per game, with Jason Tatum following behind with 7.2. Stephen Curry (seventh place) averaged 6.1 times per game, and Donovan Mitchell (8th place) averaged 5.5 times per game.

It is worth noting that Lillard ranked ninth with 5.4 times. Trent is closely behind, with the team averaging only 1.4 times per game.

This may become a major problem for the Bucks to increase their three-point shooting this season. Being able to create a mobile phone after dribbling would be an elite skill, and only a few players can do it at a high level. Judging from last season, no player can get close to Lillard's level. With the increase in roles this season and possible tactical adjustments, some players' performance may improve, but achieving a frequency of three-point shooting after dribbling like Lillard will be a huge challenge for anyone.

Now, let's take a look at the offensive strategy of setting up three-point shooters around with Antetokounmpo as the core.

Antetokounmpo is the most deterrent physical presence in the league on the offensive end, maintaining MVP-level performance year after year, and Horst has arranged many three-point shooters in the lineup, so this idea is reasonable. But the question is, where is the upper limit of this strategy? How many three-pointers can an offensive engine with Antetokounmpo as the "Sun" make?

According to Second Spectrum, the player with the most potential three-point assists per game in the league last season was Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young, averaging 10 times. Antetokounmpo ranked 13th in the list, averaging 8 times per game; while Lillard was actually above him, ranking fifth, averaging 8.7 times per game. However, it is worth noting that Chu Yang has a total of 20.8 potential assists per game, while Antetokounmpo has only 11.1. This means that 72.1% of Antetokounmpo's potential assists are three-pointers, while Blowing Young's share is only 48%.

As more organizational offensive tasks fall on Antetokounmpo, he may create more three-pointers for his teammates, or even more overall mobile phone opportunities, but he still needs the cooperation and support of his teammates around him.

The Bucks may not ask one of the point guards to average 24.9 points and 7.1 assists around Antetokounmpo, but other teams will try to steal the ball and make other players the core of the organization's offense. Therefore, in order to achieve the goals proposed by Horst, the Bucks' point guard group needs to improve their offensive capabilities or promise to shoot more three points and ensure their shooting percentage.

In addition to asking Antetokounmpo to create more three-point shots for his teammates and the point guard group to improve the organization's offense, from a tactical point of view, the Bucks have more ways to increase their three-point shots next season.

-Last season, the Bucks only made 4.6 three-pointers in the first six seconds of offense, tied for 24th in the league. By comparison, the Chicago Bulls and the Memphis Grizzlies made the most three-pointers in each game, reaching 7.7 times in 18 to 24 seconds of offense.

-The Bucks ranked 13th in their three-point shooting rate after getting offensive rebounds, but their offensive rebound rate is the lowest in the league. Therefore, according to Synergy's statistics, Milwaukee only has 1.8 second offensive three-pointers per 100 rounds, which is the second lowest in the NBA.

-In addition, Synergy data shows that the Bucks only took 1.5 three-pointers per game through screening, which is tied for 23rd in the league. The Warriors lead the league in this data, averaging 5.7 three-pointers per game, while the Jazz (4.4) and Pistons (3.5) ranked second and third respectively.

These individual adjustments may not have a huge impact on the Bucks' three-point shooting, but adopting a more aggressive shooting strategy throughout the offensive tactic may help increase the team's total three-point shooting.

Rivers may not want the Bucks to make a lot of three-pointers like the Celtics, but considering that the back line includes Trent and AJ Green, as well as excellent three-point shooters like Torrion Prince, Bobby Portis and Turner in the lineup, the Bucks should think about how to significantly increase the three-point shooting through a slight adjustment.

In the end, the loss of Lillard will greatly influence Rivers' way of developing offensive tactics. Teams will be forced to create and shoot shots in a variety of ways and rely on different organizers to create an over-average offense and win games. They can develop tactics to increase the amount of three-pointers last season, but this requires conscious decision-making and consistent principles that the team strictly follows each night.