The Kumingga deadlock may last until mid-September

Recently, three NBA reporters from The Athletic - Sam Amick, Marcus Thompson and Fred Katz gathered to discuss the latest developments of the Warriors restricted free agent Jonathan Kumingga, as well as the league's continued tug-of-war for restricted free agents.

The following are related conversations:

Katz: There is only one month left for the training camp, and NBA news is divided into two categories - either it has become the past or it seems to be endless. Even though the Oklahoma City Thunder may be on the verge of winning the 14th championship in team history decades later, LeBron James can still efficiently contribute 16 points and 6 assists per game, but Jonathan Cumingga, undoubtedly, is still a free agent.

Cuminga has been in the free agent market for the past two months - and he is not an isolated case. Three other weighty restricted free agents are still unsigned: Josh Gidey of the Chicago Bulls, Quentin Grimes of the Philadelphia 76ers, and Cameron Thomas of the Brooklyn Nets. But let's start with Kumingga, who was neglected when he was valued in the Golden State Warriors' roster, and now his free agent negotiations are deadlocked.

Sam, you stay around the Warriors; Marcus, you have been reporting on the Warriors for several years. How do you two think this will develop?

Amick: If Kumingga's latest Instagram post is credible, he's doing well during this long and nearly tense negotiation. In the photo, he is training, with the caption "Enjoyment" and an expression added, which is enough to illustrate his mentality. To be honest, players in his situation should now show this extremely confident attitude on social platforms.

Kuminga needs to convince the Warriors that he is really willing to go this difficult road – accepting a $7.9 million qualification offer for next season in order to get full free agent next summer, rather than accepting the two-year $45 million contract he has ignored for months ($21.75 million in the first year, and the team option the next year). Judging from the current situation, even if he does, I won't be surprised.

But as a relevant person told me earlier this month, it will not be until mid-September that there will be real pressure to force both sides to change their positions. The deadline for qualification quotations is October 1, and the training camp will be opened before that, and only then will everyone really start to worry.

The Warriors urgently need Kumingga to accept their offer so that they can use this important salary space to trade in the future. They have to figure out how much money they have left to sign Al Horford, D'Anthony Melton and Gary Payton Jr. — players who have been waiting to join in the free agent market.

The Sacramento Kings are the most serious suitors in Kumingga's sign-and-for-transaction deals, and they restrained the urge to make other small trades throughout the summer, as chasing Kumingga is a more priority. More specifically, if the Kings are sure to miss Kuminga completely, the chances of their signing Russell Westbrook will increase (but they are not expected to do so unless the rotation can be freed up through the trade defender).

Amick: Back to the Warriors, in this sensitive situation, Marcus, which side do you think will give in first?

Thompson: I'll "concession" first - I've been looking forward to it for the past few months, hoping that some of them can give in.

I think Kuming will give in first with a higher probability. It is easy to accept qualification quotations, but if you really want to give up $14 million less than the current contract, it will be much harder to execute. I know Kumingga is a principled person, but it is not realistic to give up such a large amount of money for the sake of principle. I understand that he doesn't want to accept this contract that is good for the team, but he will suffer anyway. It's better to take this extra $14 million first.

I also understand why he is unwilling to sign this contract: if he signs, then gets traded and plays well, and his team still has team options, which will prevent him from entering the free market in 2026 and postpone his high salary. This is indeed not the best situation, but even if the team executes the option, he can get $23 million, which is not a small amount, and it will not be particularly different from the money he can get in the free market.

However, the Warriors can actually increase their investment in retaining Kumingjia: increase their salary and ensure that the second year contract is valid. They need this contract so much - Kumingga is their last important puzzle for building the team around the core lineup. Only by renewing Kumingga can they continue to be competitive. So even if they think Kumingga is not worth that much money, raising the quotation will not be a big loss for them. If $50 million can be signed in two years, it would be better than watching him leave for nothing.

Interestingly, the team boss still wants to keep him. If you hope that Kumingga will wait patiently and wait until those veterans at the Hall of Fame level retire before taking the lead, then you should treat him well and give him the treatment he deserves.

Amick: In fact, this summer, Kumingga is not the only one who is trapped in a tug-of-war with restricted free agents. Cameron Thomas certainly thought that he would get a big contract after playing his best offensive performance in his career (24 points per game), but now he is likely to accept the qualification offer from the Nets ($6 million) - You should know that the Nets are still rebuilding. And Grimes, the 25-year-old who was traded to the 76ers last season, has performed well in 28 games, but is now in a tough situation because of the 76ers’ salary issues (as Fred recently wrote, even just giving him a $8.7 million qualification offer will trigger the luxury tax for the 76ers). The other is Gidey, who reportedly received a four-year offer of $80 million when the free market opened, but he is still fighting for a higher salary (his qualification quote is $11.1 million).

These cases have one thing in common: there is a huge gap between the qualification quotes of players and the salary they think they deserve in the free market. This is partly attributed to the rapid rise in salary caps - the salary figures are really exaggerated today, and players (rightly) want to get a piece of the historic "financial cake". You know: the NBA’s salary cap has doubled over the past 10 seasons; before that, it took 17 seasons to double the salary cap.

However, even though the salary cap is now at an all-time high of $154.6 million, under the luxury tax system (essentially, the second threshold for the salary cap is a hard cap), if the team has no salary space, no matter how high the salary cap is. None of these four players received offer contracts from other teams, which means that their parent team is actually negotiating with them. Although it is indeed an important factor to watch them leave the team for free a year, it is obvious that the initiative (essentially due to institutional design) is in the hands of the team. So, is this situation exceptional or some trend this year? If you had to choose a player who could reach an agreement first, who would you choose?

Thompson: The players trapped in "Purgatory" this offseason have a common feature: On the contrary, they all have uncertainties. So interestingly, some people blame this problem on the new version of the CBA, but in fact, it may be that these players are not excellent enough to force the team to make concessions. The best of these four, Kumingga and Gidey, are both players with high potential but obviously shortcomings - it is not clear whether they are excellent players or quasi-superstars. Could it be that the second threshold of the salary cap has reduced the team's tolerance for risks? Veteran role players who have proved their worth, even if they have reached the ceiling of their lives, seem to be able to get the salary these "high potential but have not proved themselves" players want.

I think Gidey is most likely to reach an agreement first. The guaranteed salary before him ($80 million for four years) is much higher than the $21.75 million that Kumingga had. If he accepts a qualification offer, he will get $14 million less and lose even more. What's more, Kumingga's playing time with the Warriors has been unstable in the past four years, and he has reason to insist on a tough stance; but Giddy is different, he doesn't have that much "confidence" to waste with the team.

Katz: This is not the first time that restricted free agent negotiations have been delayed until the end of the summer; even if someone accepts qualification quotes, it is not new. I believe you all remember that 15 years ago, Ben Gordon accepted the qualification offer from the Bulls. The following season, he averaged more than 20 points per game, and then signed a sky-high contract with the Detroit Pistons.

Judging from the terms of the labor-management agreement, the attractiveness of accepting qualification quotes is actually very simple: if a player does this, he will enter the market as a full free agent next summer, and at the same time, he can also ensure that he has a stable income next season. But if the team trades a player with a qualification offer, the player loses his bird rights - which will make it harder for the team that gets him to renew his contract with him in the following offseason.

Gordon eventually got a high salary, even though he performed poorly in the Pistons later. But this strategy is very risky.

Nelence Noel rejected the Mavericks' $70 million contract that year and chose to accept the qualification offer, but he could only sign a basic salary contract the next summer.

The team has been using the restricted free agent system to squeeze young players. The difference now is that each team is more afraid of two issues than before - I also mentioned in a series of reports on these four players earlier this month, which are applicable to all four of them:

1) ​​Medium salary (spending money but not receiving corresponding returns)

2) Long-term contracts (locking the salary space, limiting future operations)

Kumingga's choice seems to be limited. It may be reasonable to return to the Warriors to play for another year, but it is very risky for both sides.

This leads to teams like the Warriors willing to give a quote that can avoid "long-term contract risks" but meets "medium level" salary; the Nets will give Thomas a short-term contract; the Sixers will negotiate toughly with Grimes, either to save wages in the future or to avoid being too bloated now.