Outlook: Argentina’s easiest and toughest group draws at the 2026 World Cup

As the defending champion, Argentina will strive to successfully defend its title in the 2026 World Cup. Whether their journey will start easily or face serious challenges from the beginning will largely depend on the results of the draw held on December 5.

Messi will continue to lead Argentina in this World Cup. With their current strength and reputation, the "Pampas Eagles" are generally expected to successfully break through the group stage. However, the result of the draw may still bring about two completely different situations: either a smooth journey and easy promotion; or strong enemies are waiting around and you will be shocked at every step.

The easiest group combination

As it is ranked in the first pot, Argentina has automatically avoided other European powers and the three host teams (the United States, Canada, and Mexico). Despite this, there are still some relatively weak opponents in the remaining grades, providing Argentina with the possibility of an "ideal draw".

The weakest opponent in the second pot: Austria

Austria has won 6 out of 8 games in the world preliminaries, and its performance is acceptable. However, it obviously struggled when facing Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania. It has missed the last six World Cups in a row and lacks experience in competitions.

The weakest opponent in the third tier: Cote d'Ivoire

According to the November 2025 FIFA rankings, Cote d'Ivoire is the weakest team in this tier. The "African Elephant" that used to have Didier Drogba and Yaya Toure has long lost its courage, and its overall performance has continued to decline in recent years.

The weakest opponent in the fourth tier: New Zealand

New Zealand has long lacked opportunities to compete with top teams, has limited international competitiveness, and is even ranked lower than Haiti and the new team Curaçao.

The ideal draw is as follows:

Second pot: Austria

Third pot: Cote d'Ivoire

Fourth pot: New Zealand

If drawn into this group, Argentina can qualify as the group leader with almost no suspense.

The toughest group combination

However, if there is bad luck, Argentina may also fall into the "Group of Death".

The strongest opponent in the second pot: Croatia

This is one of the teams Argentina most hopes to avoid. Although they successfully avenged their 0-3 defeat in 2018 with a 3-0 victory in the 2022 World Cup semi-finals, Croatia has always been a difficult opponent due to its rich experience and strict tactical discipline.

The strongest potential opponent in the third pot: Australia

Since they both belong to CONMEBOL, Argentina will not be in the same group as Ecuador, so Australia has become the most threatening choice in this pot. The two sides only decided 2-1 in the 1/8 finals of the 2022 World Cup. In addition, if Haaland and Odegaard are in good form, Norway cannot be underestimated.

The most dangerous opponent in the fourth bracket: South Africa

As the host of the 2010 World Cup, South Africa has excellent physical fitness and strong confrontation ability, and is the most competitive among the teams in this bracket. It is worth noting that although Qatar, Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia are strong teams in the fourth pot, because they belong to the same Asian region as Australia, they will not be grouped with Australia according to the avoidance principle, and therefore will not appear in Argentina's group.

The most difficult draw is as follows:

Second pot: Croatia

Third pot: Australia

Fourth pot: South Africa

Overall, no matter which group is drawn, Argentina has enough strength to qualify. But the quality of their fortune will directly determine whether they can easily start defending their title or face a severe test early on. All answers will be announced at the World Cup draw ceremony on December 5.