Sunday 001 Daily B> Toyama Victory VS Mito Honeysuke

June 8th National League Toyama Victory vs Mito Hollyhock (Sunday 001). All information is strictly cited from official channels to avoid non-verified content.

Points situation and qualifying pattern (J2 League official data)

Teams' points rankings and goals conceded key targets Toyama Victory 17 games 16 points 18th place 16/19 relegation (only 1 point from the safe zone) Mito Hollyhound 17 games 32 points 4th place 26/15 impact direct upgrade zone (2 points from the second place)

Background: Toyama Victory is deeply trapped in the relegation zone as a newly promoted team. If you lose in this game, you may fall to the end of the list; Mito Hollyhound 1 game is 2 points from the upgrade zone, and you can temporarily enter the top three if you win.

Official List and Core Player Status

1. Toyama Victory (Head Coach: Ryo Anda, Formation: 5-4-1)

Official List (Club Announcement):

Goalkeeper: Taguchi Takaya

Defender: Masaya Fujita, Katsuto Yamamoto, Yamada Yamada, Masao Nakano, Hirosuke Yamazaki

Midfielder: Sato Ichi, Ueda Nakamoto, Takuko Yamamoto, Masato Fujiwara

Forward: Yoji Otsu, Key Absent:

Yoji Sasaki (Main midfielder, torn ankle ligament, season reimbursement).

Core player status (Opta/Club data):

Ueda Kazuta (Forward): contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last two rounds, but the total shooting rate of the season is only 31%, and the confrontation success rate is 45%.

Masato Fujiwara (midfield): Average 1.8 key passes per game, but weak defense contribution (0.9 interceptions per game), and there is a lot of pressure to replace Yoji Sasaki.

Taguchi Katsuya (goalkeeper): The save success rate is 73%, but the judgment error rate of high-altitude balls is 21% (the last round against Akita was lost and the ball was conceded).

Mito Hollyhosho (Head Coach: Naoki Mori, Formation: 4-2-3-1)

Official List (Club Announcement):

Goalkeeper: Hiroshi Dahei, Ashiko Ohata, Shinta Watanabe, Shuhei Matsuhara, Mitsuhiro Mitsuki, Shintaro Fujita

Forward: Koichi Murata (Returned from injury)

Key Absent: Umeda Kurota (Forward, Achilles tendon ruptured).

Core player status:

Watanabe Shinta (Defender/Midfield): scored 1 goal + 4 interceptions in the last round, with an all-round offense and defense, with a 39% crossing success rate.

Atsushi Kurokawa (forward): 8 goals and 3 assists in the season, 4 goals in the last 5 rounds, and a 28% shooting conversion rate.

Kubo Seichiro (midfielder): Average 3.2 steals + long pass success rate of 85%, and the core of offense and defense conversion. Comparison of the tactical system and recent performances

Toyama Victory: Deep defense + set-piece relies on

Andaliang's tactical core (J2 League technical report):

Compressed defense line: average ball possession rate of 42%, three-line distance is compact, relying on Masato Fujiwara to find Ueda to counterattack.

Breakout of set balls: 3 of the last 5 goals came from set balls (60%), but Yoji Sasaki was absent, resulting in a decline in the quality of the pass.

Recent flaws:

Unstable lead: Unwind for 13 consecutive rounds, lost points after scoring 3 goals.

Home weakness: only 1 win in the last 9 home games (the Emperor's Cup wins the college team), with a 25% home win rate in the league.

Mito Hollyhock: High pressure pressing + side-middle combination

Nao Mori Tactical Core (J2 League Technical Report):

Midfield control: Average ball control rate of 51%, Kubo Seichiro dispatch + Empress Dowara Insert (1.5 shots per game).

Quick conversion: 42% counterattack efficiency, Kurokawa Junshi's speed (32km/h) hits Toyama's slow-turning central defender.

Recent advantages:

Away resilience: 3 consecutive away games and conceded only 1 goal, with a zero-blocking rate of 67%.

The second half of the game: 64% of the goals came from 60 minutes later, and the physical reserves were dominant.

Key counter-attack and winner-lossing analysis

Core players' focus of the match

Positions Toyama Victory Opportunity Mito Hollyhoshoe Advantages Frontline Haruta Header (Success Rate 68%) Kurokawa Atsushi's offside (1.2 times per game) Midfielder Masato Fujiwara Long Pass Scheduled (Success Rate 78%) Kubo Seichiro intercepted (3.2 times/court) Defence Loss Taguchi Ya's high-altitude ball mistakes Watanabe's Queen Mother inserted (2 goals in the last 2 rounds)

Tactical winning key:

Settings offense and defense: Toyama's set-piece score accounts for 60% vs Mito's away set-piece conceded 33% (Ta Heiki is also weak in air defense) 19.

Psychological Advantage: Mito has won 3 wins and 3 losses in history, but has won all away games in the last two away games (3-0 Toyama in 2014).

Results prediction and subsequent impact

Data model (Opta+J League official website):

Mito Hollyhock win rate: 62% (linear thickness + three-game winning streak);

draw probability: 25% (Toyama draw rate 41.2%, the highest in the league);

Toyama win rate: 13% (home winning rate 25%).

Score deduction:

Most likely: 0-2 (Mito Massacre) - Kurokawa Atsushi defeated the deadlock + Watanabe Shinta locked the victory;

Unpopular plan: 1-1 - Wakada Yuta scored a header + Mito's front line was inefficient (see the Emperor Cup 0-1 loss to SC Sagamihara).

The subsequent chain impact:

Relegation/upgrade pattern:

Toyama loses: points stagnate by 16 points, may fall to the end of the list, and the relegation situation deteriorates;

Mito win: points 35 points surpass Iwata Joy temporarily ranked second, and the upgrade is in sight.

Coach Crisis:

Andarliang will lose at home (unwind in the last 13 rounds), or the first coach in J2 will be dismissed in the season;

Naoki Mori will continue his away game strength, which will consolidate his reputation as a "tactical innovator".

Player career node:

If Kurokawa Atsushi scores another goal, it may trigger the J1 team's liquidated damages clause;

Ueda Shita needs to prove that it can replace Yoji Sasaki, otherwise it may be traded in the summer window.

Conclusion: Mito Hollyhoshoe wins away games

Key basis:

Mito offense and defense balance + away resilience (three consecutive wins and only conceded 1 goal) crushed Toyama's home weak + core injury (Sasaki Yoji's season reimbursement);

Toyama has a high draw rate but the winning rate is at the bottom, making it difficult to withstand Mito's high pressure pressing.

Risk warning: If Mito underestimates the enemy (the Emperor Cup loses the low-level team) or Toyama plays a set piece with extraordinary performance, it may subvert expectations.

🔍 Final list verification: Log in to Toyama Victory official website or Mito Hollyhock official website 1 hour before the game to get updates.