Champions League Inter Milan vs Barcelona Preview: Who can laugh to the end?

At 3 a.m. on May 7, the second leg of the Champions League semi-finals will usher in a focus battle, with Inter Milan playing against Barcelona at home Meazza Stadium. In the first leg, the two teams contributed a goal battle and finally shook hands 3:3, which also made this round full of more suspense and highlights. Who can win this showdown and advance to the Champions League final? Let's analyze it from multiple dimensions.

1. Historical Confrontation and Recent Status

(I) Historical Confrontation

Inter Milan and Barcelona have been at a slight disadvantage in the past 17 matches. But it is worth noting that Inter Milan has remained unbeaten in the last three matches and has ended with a 3-3 draw in the last two games, including the first leg match 7 days ago. In the historical confrontation between home and Barcelona, ​​Inter Milan won 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in 8 games, and faced Barcelona three times at home in the knockout round, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss. It can be seen that although Inter Milan has not had an advantage in the overall confrontation history, its performance against Barcelona in recent days has not been bad, and it has certain ability to compete at home.

(II) Recent status

Inter Milan defeated Verona 1-0 at home last weekend, ending the previous two-game losing streak in Serie A. It is still ranked second in Serie A, 3 points behind leading Naples. In the Champions League this season, Inter Milan performed well at home, with Meazza Stadium 5 wins and 1 draw at home this season, and averaging only 0.62 goals per game. However, the previous losing streak in the Serie A and the elimination of AC Milan in the Italian Cup still shows that the team's condition has certain ups and downs.

Barcelona defeated Valladolid 2-1 away last weekend, continuing five unbeaten games on each front (4 of which were wins), and still led the La Liga standings with a 4-point advantage. In the Champions League, Barcelona's offensive firepower is also fierce, and it has hit 37 goals this season. However, under the continuous high-intensity schedule, there may be certain hidden dangers in terms of physical fitness.

2. Lineup Analysis

(I) Inter Milan has certain injuries. Paval and Bastoni are absent due to injury, and the central defender combination may continue to be partnered by Bissek with Archerby. Fortunately, the success rate of Bissek's first round top was as high as 94%, and there was a certain threat to set pieces. The midfield core Cialhanoglu is suspended, and the heavy responsibility of the midfield organization may fall on Vlatesi's shoulders, but his pass success rate (86%) and key pass ability (1.3 times per game) are different from that of Cialhanoglu, which may have a certain impact on the team's offensive fluency. However, players such as Lautaro and Toram are in good condition on the front line. Lautaro has a speed score of 8.8. He can score every 87 minutes in the Champions League this season, with a shooting rate of up to 77%. Toram also showed strong forward strength in the first round.

(II) Barcelona

Barcelona also has injuries. Conde (calf injury) and Barde (recovery) are absent, and the right back may be guest starring Eric Garcia, and there are certain questions about his defensive ability. However, the good news is that Lewandowski is likely to return, which will enhance the role of the forward fulcrum and is expected to solve the problem of low crossing efficiency in the first round. The team's offensive end includes players in excellent form such as Rafinia and Yamal. The combination of midfielders Pedri and Garvey has strong midfield control and can suppress the opponent's midfield shots. The two averaged 7.3 steals per game. Moreover, the team's average age is 24.3 years old, 2 years younger than Inter Milan, and has a day off, which may have an advantage in terms of physical fitness.

III. Tactical play method

(I) Inter Milan is expected to continue the tactics of defensive counterattack. At home, they will rely on the home atmosphere to stabilize their defense first and use the three central defender system to make defensive layout. The opponent's midfield space is compressed through interceptions by players such as midfielder Barrera (3.2 steals per game). The offensive end relies on the speed of Lautaro and Toulam, as well as Dumfries (2.8 crosses per game) and Dimarco (1.9 key passes per game) to step forward at high speed on both wings, seized Barcelona's gap after the attack, and launched an efficient counterattack through a straight pass from the midfield + cross from the wing. At the same time, set piece tactics are also an important scoring method for Inter Milan. They scored through corner kicks in the first leg (Dumfries headed).

(II) Barcelona

Barcelona will adhere to its 4-3-3 pass control system, with midfield dominance + rib penetration as the tactical program. Through a technical triangle composed of Pedri (68 passes per game, 91% success rate), Garvey (2.3 successful passes per game) and Gundogan (1.8 key passes per game), short passes tear the defense line and control the rhythm of the game. Offensively, using Rafinia (3.1 passes per game), Yamal's wing breakouts to create opportunities, and Lewandowski's finishing ability in the penalty area. In set pieces tactics, Araujo (performed 2.5 matches) has a great header. However, they exposed the hidden dangers of set pieces defense in the first round, and the second round needs to be focused on improving.

4. Competition prediction

From the perspective of various factors, the outcome of this game is unpredictable.

Inter Milan has a home advantage and has excellent defense at home in the Champions League, and its set pieces and counterattack tactics are also implemented more efficiently. They have the opportunity to score goals by solid defense, seize Barcelona's turnovers, and use set pieces and counterattacks. But the suspension of Cialhanoglu is a test for the midfield organization and may affect the smoothness of the offense.

Barcelona's overall strength is strong, with fierce offensive firepower and strong midfield control. Lewandowski's comeback further improved the offensive level. However, the stability of away games and the hidden dangers on the defense line (such as Eric Garcia's cameo as a right-back and set-piece defense issues) may be targeted by Inter Milan.

Personal opinion: Inter Milan wins or draws.

Football matches are full of uncertainty, and the players' on-the-spot state, the coach's on-the-spot command and some accidental factors may change the direction of the game. But no matter what the result is, this game will surely be a wonderful and fierce showdown and deserves the expectations of the majority of fans.

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